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№ 1/2014
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CYCLES IN A PLANNED ECONOMY
Ekon. teor. 2014; 1:0- |
ABSTRACT ▼
One of main determinants of large socio-economic cycles in the USSR is the scientific and technical factor. Initially, the planning system, except for the periods of military conflicts and political events, managed to find the ways to resolve socio-economic conflicts of both local and general economic character, which allowed avoiding endogenous periodic socio-economic crises. However, the dynamics of annual growth of industrial output and average annual growth of gross public product testifies that the Soviet planned economy was characterized by alternating of up and down periods. Also, the socio-economic cycles of public reproduction in the USSR were affected by foreign economic conjuncture. The industrialization and post-war modernization in the USSR conditioned a long period of economic buoyancy followed by a downward trend in late 1970th. Structural disproportions, shortcomings of the planning system, and especially the phasing out of the modernization processes, which became clear in the 1970th became the reason of the general decline of the rates of the USSR socio-economic development.
The Soviet planned economy existed in a quite close interconnection with the capitalist economies, so the foreign economic conjuncture had a serious influence on the rates of the USSR socio-economic development. The dynamics of the annual growth of industrial output and average annual growth of gross public product, on the whole, corresponds to the waves of large cycles of the economic conjuncture. One of the main determinants of large socio-economic cycles - scientific and technical factor - was presented in the USSR to a full degree. It is exactly that factor, together with the system of planning, that we consider the determining factors of the USSR socio-economic dynamics. The prices for energy materials exerted a certain influence on the rates of the USSR economic development, especially in 1970 – 1980, but were not the main factor. In 1970 – 1980, the inefficient measures to solve the internal conflicts of the Soviet socio-economic system resulted in the preconditions for de-modernization of economy and society. The turning points the USSR socio-economic dynamics were 1933, 1941-1946, 1979, and 1989-1991, as it is exactly in those years that the most dramatic declines in industrial output took place. Except for 1979, each of the above mentioned crises was preceded by a modernization wave. Industrialization 1930s was instrumental in the long buoyancy in the USSR economy from early 1930s to mid-1950s followed by a period of moderate growth from mid-1950s to early 1970s. In late 1970s, there was a slump of the rates of economic development, and in late 1980s a transformation crisis began, which lasted until early 2000s on the whole post-Soviet space.
Keywords:The Soviet planned economy existed in a quite close interconnection with the capitalist economies, so the foreign economic conjuncture had a serious influence on the rates of the USSR socio-economic development. The dynamics of the annual growth of i
JEL: O100, H500
Article in Russian (pp. 61 - 75) | Download | Downloads :330 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 61 - 75) | Download | Downloads :335 |
REFERENCES ▼
Gritsenko A.A. (2005) Razvitiye form obmena, stoimosti i deneg. K.: Osnova.
Grossman G. (2002) “Vtoraya ekonomika” v SSSR // Ekonomicheskaya teoriya prestupleniy i nakazaniy. – № 4 // corruption.rsuh.ru/magazine/4-1/n4-03.shtml#1.
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Nureyev R.M. (2012) Politicheskaya ekonomiya rossiyskoy vlasti-sobstvennosti // ?vropeys\'kiy vektor yekonom?chnogo rozvitku. № 2 (13). S. 224–228.
Pantin V.I. (2009) Mirovyye tsikly i perspektivy Rossii v pervoy polovine XXI veka: osnovnyye vyzovy i vozmozhnyye otvety. Dubna: Feniks+.
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№ 1/2015
GRYTSENKO Andrii Andriyovych1, PODLIESNA Vasylyna H.2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Topic 27. Socio-economic cycles: historical forms and state regulation
Ekon. teor. 2015; 1:89-99 |
ABSTRACT ▼
Keywords:
JEL:
Article in Russian (pp. 89 - 99) | Download | Downloads :107 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 89 - 99) | Download | Downloads :100 |
REFERENCES ▼
№ 4/2015
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
The cyclical nature of economic trends in Ukraine
Ekon. teor. 2015; 4:0-0 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article proves that the formation of market economy in Ukraine started in conditions of a trans-formational economic crisis that led to deep structural imbalances and institutional contradictions of the economy, resulting in increased amplitude of cyclical fluctuations. The author characterizes the medium term cycle of fluctuations in the national economy: the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators analyzed shows that, from 1991 to 2008, all four phases of the economic cycle (crisis, depression, recovery, and growth) took place.
The first economic cycle was opened by the transformational crisis; the second one began with another cyclic crisis of 2008, which transformed into a hybrid crisis involving both socio-economic and political spheres. It is proved that the characteristics of economic cycles prevailing in the country are due to the inversion nature of social and economic transformations.
Keywords:economic cycle, phase of the economic cycle, transformational crisis
JEL: E32
Article in Russian (pp. 98 - 107) | Download | Downloads :219 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 98 - 107) | Download | Downloads :270 |
REFERENCES ▼
Kosikova L.S. (2014) Osnovnye jetapy i rezul'taty social'no-jekonomicheskih transformacij na Ukraine. Zhurnal NJeA. № 1 (21). S. 167–171. www.econorus.org/repec/journl/2014-21-167-171r.pdf.
Marks K. (1950) Kapital. T. 2. M.: Politizdat.
Mochernyi S. (1995) Osnovni prychyny sotsialno-ekonomichnoi kryzy v Ukraini ta shliakhy yii podolannia. Ekonomika Ukrainy. 1995 . № 2. S. 48–58.
Palahniuk Yu.V. (2009) Ekonomichni reformy v Ukraini pid chas prezydent-stva L.M. Kravchuka. Naukovi pratsi Chornomorskoho derzhavnoho universytetu imeni Petra Mohyly. Ser.: Politolohiia. T. 122. Vyp. 109. S. 54–59. nbuv.gov.ua/j pdf/Npchdupol_2009_122_109_12.pdf.
Samujel'son P. (1994) Jekonomika. M.: Mashinostroenie. T. 1.
№ 3/2018
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Military-economic cycles
Ekon. teor. 2018; 3:45-58 | https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2018.03.045 |
ABSTRACT ▼
In ancient times and in the Middle Ages, there were special forms of cyclical military-economic processes, in particular, power cycles, expressed in the synchronism of formation, strengthening, and decline of the ruling dynasties in China and the steppe empires in Mongolia, as well as the cycles of a xenocratic state inherent in the medieval Maghreb. The cycle-forming factor of the interaction between nomads of the central steppes and China is the dynamics of socio-economic and state-forming processes in China. The cyclical interaction between nomads and sedentary farmers of the Medieval Maghreb consisted of the following phases: 1) the conquest and forcible establishment, by the nomads, of the system of exploitation of farmers; 2) relatively stable socio-economic and political interaction between nomads and sedentary agricultural civilizations exploited by the former; 3) the destruction of the institutional practices of exploitation of sedentary civilizations by nomads, accompanied by the aggravation of political or military-political conflicts.
In capitalist society, mature forms of military-economic cycles unfold. The reasons for the deployment of military-economic cycles under capitalism include: political and economic (competition for opportunities to increase surplus value); institutional (reduced efficiency of the exploitation system); instrumental-and-ideological (ideological influence, organized by the dominant social groups to achieve political and economic goals); and mental-and-psychological ones (easily motivated propensity for mass aggression of generations with no military experience). As a result of the cumulative influence of the above causes, contradictions emerge that serve as a basis for the start of wars. The current global socio-economic crisis and the aggravation of geopolitical contradictions, taking into account the accumulated global nuclear arsenal, threaten the survival of mankind, making it necessary to create appropriate institutional conditions to replace military-economic cycles with peaceful forms of the resolution of social contradictions.
Keywords: military-economic cycles, power cycles, cycles of the xenocratic state
JEL: O 100
Article in Russian (pp. 45 - 58) | Download | Downloads :552 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 45 - 58) | Download | Downloads :355 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Barfield, T.J. (2006) Nomad pastoralism in Inner Asia. Retrieved from www.socionauki.ru/book/files/early_state_ru/415-441.Pdf [in Russian]
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№ 2/2019
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Socio-economic cycles in the conditions of digital economy
Ekon. teor. 2019; 2:29-43 | https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2019.02.029 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The profound transformations of society’s productive forces that are taking place today under the conditions of the fourth industrial revolution, actualize the problem of the prospects for further cyclical development of the capitalist economy. Industrial revolutions, technological forms, and technocenoses are embedded in long-term socio-economic cycles, generated by contradictions between techno-technological, socio-economic and institutional components of reproductive dynamics. The most urgent form of socio-economic cycles in modern conditions of the society’s digitization remain the Kondratiev waves, whose deployment allows overcoming the periodic deep aggravation of the internal contradictions of the capitalist economy. The term "digital economy" appeared at the end of the twentieth century, but the digital nature was inherent in the capitalist economy from its outset as all the processes taking place in it are permeated by commodity-money relations. Also, the dynamics of economic processes are measured by quantitative parameters, which allows empirical substantiation of the cyclicality of capitalist economy. From the beginning of the XXI century, the fourth industrial revolution has been taking place contributing to the growth of the scale and depth of the digitalization of social production, which causes the transformation of industrial relations. The deep transformation processes taking place today do not abolish private property and competition. Therefore, the basic contradictions of the capitalist mode of production remain predetermining the specific forms of socio-economic cycles, which are peculiar to capitalist. The main tendency of the capitalist economy is that of the rate of profit to decline, which is due to the contradictory nature of capitalism. In the twenty-first century, due to profound technological transformations, new important factors of periodic re-accumulation of capital have appeared, first of all, the financialization. The modern global economy is characterized by deep financialization, and the geopolitics is characterized by an increase in turbulence, which is characteristic for the period of the completion of J. Arrigy’s systemic accumulation cycle. Digitalization of the capitalist economy as a basis for the deployment of the fourth industrial revolution provides conditions for the development of industry on a new technological basis, for the restoration of productivity growth rates, as well as for expanding the possibilities to maximize the profit rates.
Keywords: digital economy, fourth industrial revolution, socio-economic cycles, Kondratiev waves, system accumulation cycles, contradictions of reproductive dynamics
JEL: O 100
Article in Russian (pp. 29 - 43) | Download | Downloads :522 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 29 - 43) | Download | Downloads :421 |
REFERENCES ▼
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11. Kuncman A.A. (2016). Transformation of Internal and External Business Environment in Digital Economy. Upravlenie ekonomicheskimi sistemami: elektronnyj nauchnyj zhurnal – Management of Economic Systems: electronic scientific journal, 11(93). Retrieved from cyberleninka.ru/article/n/transformatsiya-vnutrenney-i-vneshney-sredy-biznesa-v-usloviyah-tsifrovoy-ekonomiki [in Russian].
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22. Yudina, T.N. (2016). Understanding the digital economy. Teoreticheskaya ekonomika. – The theoretical economy, 3, 12-16. Retrieved from scholar.google.ru/citations?user=8dcwE0oAAAAJ&hl=ru [in Russian].
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№ 1/2020
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Political cycles in the conditions of formation of the information network society
Ekon. teor. 2020; 1:52-64 |
ABSTRACT ▼
In the cyclical dynamics of the capitalist world system, politics and economics are closely intertwined, which is manifested in the development of political business cycles of individual countries, as well as in the development of cyclical political and economic processes in the long run on a global scale. The development of political business cycles is due to the influence of interrelated factors - competition of political forces, economic expectations and political preferences of voters. The immanent to the capitalist world-system deep internal contradictions lead to a variety of forms of long-term socio-economic cycles, including such a form as political cycles of a global nature. In the modern conditions of transition from the industrial-market system to the information-network society, the factors continue to exist and the contradictions emerge that both lead to the development of political cycles. Technical and technological transformations that contribute to the formation of information and network society, are strengthening the possibilities of ideological and propaganda activities that affect the cyclical political and economic processes. In such conditions, political cycles are becoming more and more emergent, which is largely due to the influence of social networks, computer games, and \"new media\" on people\'s political preferences and their political activity. The cyclical processes of establishing economic and political hegemony in the capitalist world system determine the dominance of the political cycles of leading countries over those of less developed countries. Improving production and dissemination technologies enhances the ability of leading countries to influence the political cycles of less developed countries, and the use of \"soft power\" is becoming an increasingly important tool of geopolitical struggle in the process of deployment of long-term global political cycles.
Keywords:political cycles, Kondratiev cycles, information-network society, capitalist world-system, geopolitical confrontation, world leadership
JEL: O100
REFERENCES ▼
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12. Kondratiev, N. D., Yakovets, Yu. V., Abalkin, L. I. (2002). Large Cycles of Conjuncture and the Theory of Foresight, Selected Works. Moscow: Economics [in Russian].
13. Korotayev, A. V., Shishkina, A. R., Issaev, L. M. (2016). Arab spring as a global phase transition trigger? Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniya – Polis. Political Studies, 3, 108-122. Retrieved from www.politstudies.ru/article/5137 [in Russian].
14. Krasnikova, E. V., Hamathanova, A. M. (2018). Shareholder property as a factor in capitalism longevity. Moscow: The Faculty of Economics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University [in Russian].
15. Leonova, O. G. (2013). Soft power as a state’s foreign policy resource. Obozrevatel – Observer, 4. 27-40. Retrieved from www.observer.materik.ru/-observer/N4_2013/027_040.pdf [in Russian].
16. Modelski, G., Thompson W. (1992). Kondratiev’s waves, the development of the world economy and international politics. Voprosy Ekonomiki – Economic issues, 10, 49-58 [in Russian].
17. Modelski, G. (2005). The Evolution of Global Politics (I). Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniya – Polis. Political Studies, 3, 62-82. Retrieved from www.politstudies.ru/article/3564 [in Russian].
18. Nye, J. S., Jr. (2013). Soft Power and US-European Relations. Smart Power Journal. Retrieved from smartpowerjournal.ru/soft-power/ [in Russian].
19. Pantin, V. I. (2009). World cycles and prospects of Russia in the first half of the XXI century. Key challenges and possible answers. Dubna: Phoenix + [in Russian].
20. Podliesna, V. (2020). The cyclical nature of US foreign policy. Retrieved from sci-conf.com.ua
21. Rustamova, L. (2019). Use of information methods of struggle by the ISIS terrorist organization. Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn - International Affairs, 5, 112-119 Retrieved from interaffairs.ru/jauthor/material/2191 [in Russian].
22. Schwab, K. (2016). The Fourth Industrial Revolution. Moscow: Eksmo (Top Business Awards) [in Russian].
23. Shihov, V. A. (2017). Monroe Doctrine: Content and Formation of Principles. Mezhdunarodnyj nauchno-issledovatelskij zhurnal - International Research Journal, 12(66), 120-123. Retrieved from research-journal.org/hist/¬doktrina-monro-soderzhanie-i-formirovanie-principov/ [in Russian].
24. Schlesinger, A. (1992). The Cycles of American History. Retrieved from www.gumer.info/bibliotek_Buks/History/shlez/02.php [in Russian].
25. Alesina, A. (1988). Macroeconomics and Politics. Retrieved from www.nber.org/chapters/c10951.pdf
26. Goldstein, J. S. (1988). Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age. New Haven: Yale University Press. Retrieved from www.joshuagoldstein.com/jgcycle.htm
27. Nordhaus, W.D. (1989). Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 2. Retrieved from dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/-1/12553719/1989b_bpea_nordhaus_alesina_schultze.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
28. Rogoff, K., Sibert, A. (1988). Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles. Review of Economic Studies. 55 (1), 1-16. Retrieved from scholar.harvard.edu/-files/rogoff/files/elections_and_macroeconomic_policy_cycles.pdf
29. Wallerstein, I. (2000). The Essential Wallerstein. New York. The New Press.
30. Žukauskas, А. (2018). Video Games and the Politics of Historical Memory: War Memory in American and Russian Video Games. Politologija. 90(2), 88-113. Retrieved from www.journals.vu.lt/politologija/issue/view/1051 [in Lithuanian].
№ 3/2020
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Political cycles in the conditions of formation of the information network society
Ekon. teor. 2020; 3:52-64 | https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2020.03.052 |
ABSTRACT ▼
In the cyclical dynamics of the capitalist world system, politics and economics are closely intertwined, which is manifested in the development of political business cycles of individual countries, as well as in the development of cyclical political and economic processes in the long run on a global scale. The development of political business cycles is due to the influence of interrelated factors - competi-tion of political forces, economic expectations and political preferences of voters. The immanent to the capitalist world-system deep internal contradictions lead to a variety of forms of long-term socio-economic cycles, including such a form as political cycles of a global nature. In the modern conditions of transition from the industrial-market system to the information-network society, the factors continue to exist and the contradictions emerge that both lead to the development of politi-cal cycles. Technical and technological transformations that contribute to the formation of information and network society, are strengthening the possibilities of ideological and propaganda activities that affect the cyclical political and eco-nomic processes. In such conditions, political cycles are becoming more and more emergent, which is largely due to the influence of social networks, computer games, and "new media" on people's political preferences and their political ac-tivity. The cyclical processes of establishing economic and political hegemony in the capitalist world system determine the dominance of the political cycles of leading countries over those of less developed countries. Improving production and dissemination technologies enhances the ability of leading countries to influ-ence the political cycles of less developed countries, and the use of "soft power" is becoming an increasingly important tool of geopolitical struggle in the process of deployment of long-term global political cycles.
Keywords:political cycles, Kondratiev cycles, information-network society, capitalist world-system, geopolitical confrontation, world leadership
JEL: O100
Article in Russian (pp. 52 - 64) | Download | Downloads :205 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 52 - 64) | Download | Downloads :314 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Baryshnikov, P. N. (2014). The typology of immortality in the theoretical field of french transhumanism. Filosofskie problemy informacionnyh tehnologij i kiberprostranstva - Philosophical problems of IT and Cyberspace, 1(7), 98-127. Retrieved from cyberleninka.ru/article/n/tipologiya-bessmertiya-v-teoreticheskom-pole-frantsuzskogo-transgumanizma [in Russian].
3. Brzezinski, Z. (2019). The Grand Chessboard. Moscow: Publishing house AST [in Russian].
4. Wallerstein, I. (2014). Immanuel Wallerstein on World-Systems, the Imminent End of Capitalism and Unifying Social Science. Retrieved from gefter.ru/archive/13823 [in Russian].
5. Wallerstein, I. (2003). The Three Instances of Hegemony in the History of the Capitalist World-Economy. Ojkumena. Almanah sravnitelnyh issledovanij politicheskih institutov, socialno-ekonomicheskih sistem i civilizacij - Oikumena. Almanac of comparative studies of political institutions, socio-economic systems and civilizations, 1, 160-169. Retrieved from www.gumer.info/bibliotek_Buks/History/Article/vall_tri.php [in Russian].
6. Vasiliev, A., Issaev, L., A., et al. (2018). Instruments of the Islamic State "Soft Power": Typology and Performance Evaluation. Aziya i Afrika segodnya - Asia and Africa today, 12, 3-10. Retrieved from asaf-today.ru/images/AA_nomers/2018/201812/Vasilev-Instrumenty.pdf; doi.org/10.31857/S032150750002565-3 [in Russian].
7. Grishin, O. E., Iglin, D. A. (2015). Computer games as part of the political mass-culture and communication. PolitBook, 1, 127-145. Retrieved from cyberleninka.ru/article/n/kompyuternye-igry-kak-element-massovoy-politicheskoy-kultury-i-kommunikatsii [in Russian].
8. Hrytsenko, A. A. (2017). Influence of formation of information-network economy on social relations and character of knowledge. Suspilstvo, ekonomika ta ekonomichna nauka v XXI stolitti: zb. materialiv II mizhnar. nauk.-prakt. konf. (21-22 kvitnya, 2017, Kiyiv) - Prosperity, economics and economics science in the XXI century ( collection of materials of the international scientific and practical conference, 2017, April 21-22, Kyiv). KNEU. Retrieved from kneu.edu.ua/userfiles/Faculty_of_ Economics_and_Administration/Polecodept/conference-papers.pdf [in Ukraine].
9. Dyatlov, S. A. (2012). Global innovation hypercompetition. Izvestiya Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta ekonomiki i finansov - News of St. Petersburg University of Economics and Finance, 4 (76), 42-48. Retrieved from cyberleninka.ru/article/n/globalnaya-innovatsionnaya-giperkonkurentsiya-1 [in Russian].
10. Ilyina (Rzhevskaya), M. S. (2015). The role of management in the process of capitalist ownership form transformation: from private to "managerial"? Izvestiya vysshih uchebnyh zavedenij. Povolzhskij region. Obshestvennye nauki - University proceedings. Volga region. Social sciences, 4 (36), 197-209. Retrieved from izvuz_on.pnzgu.ru/files/izvuz_on.pnzgu.ru/on_4_2015.pdf [in Russian].
11. Heyets, V.M. et al. (Eds.). (2015). Innovative Ukraine 2020. NAS of Ukraine. Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
12. Kondratiev, N. D., Yakovets, Yu. V., Abalkin, L. I. (2002). Large Cycles of Conjuncture and the Theory of Foresight, Selected Works. Moscow: Economics [in Russian].
13. Korotayev, A. V., Shishkina, A. R., Issaev, L. M. (2016). Arab spring as a global phase transition trigger? Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniya - Polis. Political Studies, 3, 108-122. Retrieved from www.politstudies.ru/article/5137 [in Russian].
14. Krasnikova, E. V., Hamathanova, A. M. (2018). Shareholder property as a factor in capitalism longevity. Moscow: The Faculty of Economics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University [in Russian].
15. Leonova, O. G. (2013). Soft power as a state's foreign policy resource. Obozrevatel - Observer, 4, 27-40. Retrieved from www.observer.materik.ru/observer/N4_2013/027_040.pdf [in Russian].
16. Modelski, G., Thompson W. (1992). Kondratiev's waves, the development of the world economy and international politics. Voprosy Ekonomiki - Economic issues, 10, 49-58 [in Russian].
17. Modelski, G. (2005). The Evolution of Global Politics (I). Polis. Politicheskie issledovaniya - Polis. Political Studies, 3, 62-82. Retrieved from www.politstudies.ru/article/3564 [in Russian].
18. Nye, J. S., Jr. (2013). Soft Power and US-European Relations. Smart Power Journal. Retrieved from smartpowerjournal.ru/soft-power/ [in Russian].
19. Pantin, V. I. (2009). World cycles and prospects of Russia in the first half of the XXI century. Key challenges and possible answers. Dubna: Phoenix + [in Russian].
20. Podliesna, V. (2020). The cyclical nature of US foreign policy. Retrieved from sci-conf.com.ua
21. Rustamova, L. (2019). Use of information methods of struggle by the ISIS terrorist organization. Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn - International Affairs, 5, 112-119. Retrieved from interaffairs.ru/jauthor/material/2191 [in Russian].
22. Schwab, K. (2016). The Fourth Industrial Revolution. Moscow: Eksmo (Top Business Awards) [in Russian].
23. Shihov, V. A. (2017). Monroe Doctrine: Content and Formation of Principles. Mezhdunarodnyj nauchno-issledovatelskij zhurnal - International Research Journal, 12(66), 120-123. Retrieved from research-journal.org/hist/doktrina-monro-soderzhanie-i-formirovanie-principov/ [in Russian].
24. Schlesinger, A. (1992). The Cycles of American History. Retrieved from www.gumer.info/bibliotek_Buks/History/shlez/02.php [in Russian].
25. Alesina, A. (1988). Macroeconomics and Politics. Retrieved from www.nber.org/chapters/c10951.pdf;
doi.org/10.1086/654070
26. Goldstein, J. S. (1988). Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age. New Haven: Yale University Press. Retrieved from www.joshuagoldstein.com/jgcycle.htm
27. Nordhaus, W.D. (1989). Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2. Retrieved from dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/12553719/1989b_bpea_nordhaus_alesina_schultze.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y;
doi.org/10.2307/2534461
28. Rogoff, K., Sibert, A. (1988). Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles. Review of Economic Studies, 55 (1), 1-16. Retrieved from scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/elections_and_macroeconomic_policy_cycles.pdf;
doi.org/10.2307/2297526
29. Wallerstein, I. (2000). The Essential Wallerstein. New York. The New Press.
30. Žukauskas, A. (2018). Video Games and the Politics of Historical Memory: War Memory in American and Russian Video Games. Politologija, 90(2), 88-113. Retrieved from www.journals.vu.lt/politologija/issue/view/1051; doi.org/10.15388/Polit.2018.90.11925 [in Lithuanian].
№ 4/2021
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Socio-economic inequality: essence, cyclicality of the dynamics
Ekon. teor. 2021; 4:41-55 | https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2021.04.041 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article considers socio-economic inequality as a social phenomenon inherent in all historical forms of society, which is characterized by the exploitation of wide circles of population by the elite. It is generated by the basic economic law of each historical form of antagonistic society and is expressed in the periodic aggravation of class contradictions.
The most important component of social inequality in capitalist society is economic inequality. There is a relationship between the economic growth and inequality of income that S. Kuznets was one of the first to prove. P. Sorokin, justifying the hypothesis of the cyclicality of fluctuations in the average level of welfare and income within a certain society, appealed to the existence of "small business cycles", and explained by the existence of Kondratiev waves the tendency towards the increase in the average level of income and welfare, mani-fested in the second half of XIX century in some countries. The author analyzes the close relationship between the dynamics of inequality and social processes, whose driving force is violence – "four horsemen of the equalization": the war with mass mobilization, the transformational revolution, the decay of the state and the lethal pandemic, – as established by W. Scheidel; it is the "four horsemen of the equalization" that reduce the gap between rich and poor, that is, the social inequality is temporarily smoothed destructively.
It has been established that during large-scale wars, revolutions, the destruction of states there is a permission of cyclically exacerbating contradictions of social development, which generate the deployment of long-term socio-economic cycles (cycles of changing the forms of society; hegemony establishment cycles in the world-system, long political cycles, Kondratiev waves, etc.). Therefore, the changes in the levels of socio-economic inequality generated by these "horsemen of the equalization" are also cyclic
Keywords:socio-economic inequality, justice, social state, socio-economic cycles, cyclic dynamics of socio-economic inequality
JEL: O10
Article in Russian (pp. 41 - 55) |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 41 - 55) |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Wallerstein, I. (2003). The Three Instances of Hegemony in the History of the Capitalist World-Economy. Ojkumena. Almanah sravnitelnyh issledovanij politicheskih institutov, socialno-ekonomicheskih sistem i civilizacij – Oikumena. Almanac of comparative studies of political institutions, socio-economic systems and civilizations, 1, 160-169. Retrieved from www.gumer.info/bibliotek_Buks/History/Article/vall_tri.php [in Russian].
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№ 4/2022
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Military-economic cycles in the context of civilizational development
Ekon. teor. 2022; 4:53-68 | https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2022.04.053 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article substantiates that wars are an inevitable component of civilizational development, during which periods of peaceful development and periods of the intensifica-tion of military violence alternate, appearing in the form of largescale military conflicts affecting the form of resolution of the contradictions of social evolution. All historical forms of the most developed civilizations are social organisms based on class antagonism. Class inequality and exploitation, characteristic of civilizations that reached the empire level of development in the pre-capitalist era, and under the conditions of the capitalist world-system as a contender for the role of global hegemon, encourage them to perform external military expansion in order to acquire colonies and establish in them a system of exploitation. Military technologies have acquired the greatest lethality under the conditions of capitalism, while the military economy is an important component of the capitalist economy. However, already in the agrarian society, there were military-economic cycles, in particular those associated with cycles of power, which were expressed in the synchronicity of the emergence, strengthening, and decline of ruling dynasties in China and steppe empires in Mongolia, as well as the cycles of xenocratic state characteristic of the medieval Maghreb. The cyclicity of wars is clearly visible in long-term cycles that determine the dynamics of the capitalist world-system, such as Kondratiev cycles, long cycles of world politics, and cycles of hegemony. The military-economic cycles in historical retrospect and in modern conditions are conditioned by the struggle for resources that allow social units or complex social organisms, who win in the struggle for military-political leadership to dominate, creating political-economic systems of domination-exploitation, which allows the hegemonic civili-zation for some time to develop successfully. Each historical form of domination based political-economic system contained the prerequisites for the next war for regional or global leadership in the form of deep socio-economic, political and civilizational con-tradictions.
Keywords:military-economic cycles, long cycles of world politics, cycles of hegemony, civilization, empire, world leader
JEL: O100
Article in Russian (pp. 53 - 68) | Download | Downloads :132 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 53 - 68) | Download | Downloads :110 |
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2. Barfield, T. J. (2009). Dangerous boundary: nomadic empires and China (221 BC - 1757 AD). St. Petersburg. Retrieved from www.abirus.ru/user/files/History/Nomadic.pdf/ [in Russian].
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№ 3/2023
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Cyclicity of geopolitical processes
Ekon. teor. 2023; 3:58-70 | https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2023.03.058 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The economy is the basis for political processes, while the contradictions arising in the system of socio-economic relations determine the cyclical nature of social development, in particular, cyclical economic and political processes that have become global under the conditions of the capitalist world-system. The cyclic nature of geo-economic and geo-political processes is manifested primarily in the cyclical nature of the change of the world hegemon, whose presence indicates the existence of a global political and economic system. The prerequisites for the formation of the world political and economic system, which develops cyclically, arose already in the most ancient times. The historical prototypes of world hegemony were the Roman and Chinese empires, as well as the Mongolian empire, after whose fall the Western European civilization from the beginning of the "long" XVI century became a source of contradictions, giving rise to a cyclical process of struggle for world leadership, which is reflected in the main provisions of the theory of long cycles of world politics by J. Modelski and U. Thompson, theories of cycles of hegemony by I. Wallerstein, etc. The unfolding of long cy-cles of world politics and cycles of hegemony is coordinated with the unfolding of Kondratiev cycles, whose beginning and end are marked by wars, generated by political and economic contradictions and serving as a way of their partial resolu-tion. The competition of the leading actors of geopolitics gives rise to global military-economic cycles, whose rhythm is set by world wars, and global geo-economic and geopolitical cycles create the basis for the deployment of cycles derived from them on a regional scale. The rhythm of cyclical geo-economic and geopolitical processes on a regional scale is determined by the dynamics of global cycles.
Today, the increasing instability in the capitalist world-system indicates the be-ginning of crisis-militaristic phases of global cycles, whose unfolding leads to a cyclical change of the leader in the capitalist world-system, and the reformatting of the world geopolitical system, and creates the basis for the development of deep geo-economic and geopolitical contradictions, which are the internal driving force of the cyclicality of global political and economic processes
Keywords:cyclical geo-economic and geopolitical processes, military-economic cycles, Kondratiyev cycles, hegemony cycles, long cycles of world politics, "century trends"
JEL: O100
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 58 - 70) | Download | Downloads :64 |
REFERENCES ▼
2. Podliesna, V. (2022). Military-economic cycles in the context of civilizational development. Ekon. teor. – Economic Theory, 4, 53-68. doi.org/10.15407/etet2022.04.053 [in Ukrainian]
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