Based on the analysis of the definitions of "capitalization", the authors define three groups of its inter-pretation, namely, as a process, as a condition, and as a relation. They develop a conceptual model integrating the existing definitions of capitalization as a process in the form of steps of a more general cyclic process. Proposed a three-dimensional vision of the phenomenon of capitalization; on its basis, the authors construct its systemic representation, which includes objectives, mechanisms and evalua-tion criteria

Keywords:capitalization, the basics of capitalization, economic process, conceptual model, a cyclic process.

The article identifies problems with quantitative assessment of the efficiency of markets and respective categories (economic efficiency, perfect competition, and so on). The problem of "vicious circle" in the economic assessment (the price depends on the costs, which, in turn, depend on the price) is considered as the main cause of the impossibility to define the degree of efficiency of the markets and to establish a connection between the given degree of efficiency and economic crisis. To solve this problem, the author proposes the introduction of an additional (to the monetary) unit to measure the outlay costs of production resources. Disposable energy (exergy) is proposed as a general measure of such outlays. On this basis, the author formulates the hypothesis of cumulative inefficiency of markets, which applies to all markets of an economic system. According to this hypothesis, all the markets are inefficient from the fundamental point of view, but the degree of their inefficiency is different. The author introduces the category of efficient competition and hidden resource overspending for an individual market (company), and proposes a way to quantify them. It is shown that the amount of hidden resource overspending, which measures the degree of market inefficiency is the result of changes in cross-industry proportions (relative prices).

Keywords:market efficiency, market inefficiency, technical and economic efficiency, perfect competition, effective competition, economic crisis

Attempting to establish a fundamental relationship between the efficiency of the use of production resources and dy-namics of economic growth, a new model of economic cycle is proposed. It is shown that the hidden resource overuse used in GDP production is an initial driving force of economic cycles for general case. The resource overuse is a result of cumulative market imperfections caused by various market conditions and embodied in the gap between calculated natural and actual market price deflators. Total efficiency of the regulatory policy and its influence on growth rate can be evaluated by the size of this gap. This enables feedback between actions of the regulator and their impact on the econ-omy. It was empirically tested on the USA economy using a period of 45 years or six empirical business cycles in a row. The model allows us to identify and forecast recession with the lead period 6 to 18 months. Empirical testing of the cumulative market imperfections model reveals the absence of false signals when recession starting points forecasting and possibility to separate recession signal from temporary slowdown one

Keywords: business cycles, economic growth rate, recession, forecasting, macroeconomic dynamics, macroequlibrium, perfect and efficient competition, market efficiency rate.

The article deals with the main problems affecting the efficiency of regulation policy. The author proposes various guidelines to their solution based on his CMI-model of economic cycle. There is an empirical proof of this model’s general character as determining the calendar dates of the starting points for all cycles for such two completely different economies as the USA since 1970 and Ukraine since 1997. Author shows a quantitative relationship between the efficiency of regulation policy and sustainable growth. He makes an analysis on the efficiency of the US central bank’s "quantitative easing" of the monetary policy and demonstrates empirically the effect of this policy on the national economy. Proposed are some recommendations to increase the efficiency of Ukraine’s national monetary policy to provide a sustainable growth.

Keywords: monetary (regulation) policy, efficiency, targeting, business cycles, growth rate, recession, macroeconomic dynamics

This paper considers main factors that provide ambiguity and incompleteness of information when identifying current economic conditions and recession forecasting. Author demonstrates how these information properties influenced the US regulator’s decision making and the quarterly correction of the US economy forecasts made by IMF, World Bank and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) from January to October 2008. Efficiency of some typical models (CLI-index model; Probit-model; Stock-Watson model and Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3); Yield Curve Inversion model) used by Fed was empirically tested in the course of the forecasting of the US recession. Common drawbacks inherent for these models are summarized. Monitoring of the above mentioned institutions forecasts show, how these drawbacks prevented the regulators from reducing the ambiguity and incompleteness of information when identifying current economic conditions, even when the recession of 2007-09 had already started.
Competitive advantages of author’s CMI-model as compared to typical models noted above are empirically demonstrated. Author demonstrates empirically how CMI-model usage allows us to decrease the information ambiguity and incompleteness when identifying current economic conditions. Besides, it allows us to forecast any recession accurately and timely under all economic conditions and in doing so to increase the efficiency of any cyclical regulation policy. It would be especially useful for Ukrainian economy, where the efficiency of typical models is limited objectively. It is caused by the local (not general) character of these models and by the absence of continuous time series of statistical data, which are necessary to select representative composition of economic indicators that would be able to describe national economy.

Keywords: recession, financial crisis, forecasting efficiency, economic information, forecasting model, leading indicators

The article considers the features of contemporary inflation, which are difficult to explain within the framework of well-known theories. We used the authors’ CMI-model of economic cycles to explain the phenomena of low inflation in the US economy and relatively low economic growth under the record high employment during 2008-2019. In this model, the aggregate money supply M2 is divided in two parts: 1) neutral (that does not affect the growth rate) and 2) non-neutral (that affects the growth rate). We proved empirically that the implementation of the "quantitative easing" monetary policy through the financial markets (to reduce the short- and long-term interest rates) has little effect on the economic growth rate, but mainly causes the growth of the stock markets, which absorb neutral money supply, holding back the inflation process. However, this policy may cause a financial bubble in the stock markets and increases the probability of a significant correction in the value of financial assets in the case of a new recession. We evaluated the outlooks of the beginning of a new recession in the US economy that can cause a new recession in Ukrainian economy as well. The positive effect from the “quantitative easing” monetary policy is a record duration (for the entire history of observations) of the US recovery that contributed to the record low unemployment. The negative effects of this policy include the least (for the last 50 years) average economic growth rates during the recovery and relatively low level of labor productivity since 2010. At the same time, the existence of developed financial markets and stimuli for investments in financial assets may serve as an effective instrument to hold back the inflation. Therefore, any contributing from all regulators in development of financial markets would be also useful for Ukraine.

Keywords:inflation, business cycle, financial market, monetary policy, (non)neutral money, recession, growth rate, financial index.

We proposed new way to provide complementarities of main macroeconomic values — economic growth, employment and inflation. It was shown at the example of
monetary policy of world’s main central banks that unofficially the banks are trying
to control all three main macroeconomic values, to provide their complementarities. Although officially they mainly have one purpose mandate that is inflation (except of the U.S. central bank that should control both inflation and employment). It
is difficult to provide complementarities of three main macroeconomic values at
the absence of some economic model that connect as all three integrated values,
as numerous intermediate indicators, which determine every of three main values.
Finally, choice of any regulation instrument is determined by the model chosen by
regulator that provides interconnection between integrated values and intermediate indicators. Analyzing history of monetary policy for world’s main central
banks we revealed changing efficiency for their regulation instruments from the
point of its affects on economic growth, employment and inflation. It varies from
maximum efficiency in optimum point in time to minimum efficiency that requires
change of regulation instrument to provide more stable and forecast able the
cause-result type connection between final and intermediate indicators.
Based on the author’s CMI-model of macroeconomic dynamics, we substantiated
the formula that connects between each other both the three main macroeconomic indicators and numerous intermediate variables. It allows us, targeting only one
integrated indicator — cumulative market imperfections, — to control economic
growth, employment and inflation at the same time. For this purpose we can
chose all possible instrument as of monetary policy, as of the other kinds of regulations (fiscal, antitrust, innovation ones etc.). Besides, we would be able to control efficiency of how applied regulation instruments affect main macroeconomic
values, to determine the quantitative criterion of optimum efficiency for regulation
instruments.

Keywords:economic growth, employment, inflation, monetary policy, targeting

We propose a new way to provide complementarities of main macroeconomic indicators — economic growth, employment and inflation. It is shown at the example of monetary policy of world’s main central banks that, while officially the banks mainly have one purpose mandate, which is inflation (except of the U.S. where the central bank are officially to control both inflation and employment, unofficially they try to control all three main macroeconomic values, to provide their complementarities. It is difficult to provide complementarities of three main macroeconomic indicators in the absence of an economic model that connects both the three integrated indicators, and numerous intermediate ones, which determine each of the three main indicators.
Finally, choice of any regulation instrument is determined by the model chosen by regulator to provide interconnection between integrated values and intermediate indicators. Analyzing the history of monetary policy for world’s main central banks, we revealed changing efficiency for their regulation instruments in terms of their effect on economic growth, employment and inflation. It varies from maximum efficiency in the optimum point in time to minimum efficiency, which requires a change of the regulation instrument for a new one to provide a more stable and forecastable cause-result connection between final and intermediate indicators.
At the base of author’s CMI-model of macroeconomic dynamics we grounded the formula that connects as three main macroeconomic values so numerous inter-mediate indicators. It allows us, targeting only one integrated indicator (cumulative market imperfections) to control economic growth, employment and inflation at the same time. For that purpose we can chose all possible instruments both of monetary policy and of other policies (fiscal, antitrust, innovation ones etc.). Besides, we would be able to control efficiency of the action of the applied regulation instruments on the main macroeconomic indicators to determine the quantitative criterion of optimum efficiency for regulation instruments.

Keywords:economic growth, employment, inflation, monetary policy, targeting

The evidence base of proving that a monopoly uses its market power is a problem that has no unambiguous solution. Lack of clarity in antitrust legislation is a long term problem. A part of the problem is impossibility to elaborate a theory and quantitative indexes for a monopoly control, which would be used for juridical practice. This paper presents an attempt to solve this problem proposing new quantitative indexes of a monopoly control. To do this, we used the cumulative market imperfection model of macroeconomic dynamics (CMI-model) that is based on comparison of perfect and imperfect competition both for separate markets and economy as a whole. Within framework of the model there is a possibility to calculate natural (competitive) price that correspond to perfect competition even, if such competition never was establish in real market. Difference between natural and actual market price characterizes the rate of market imperfection and could be used for the monopoly power estimation. We proposed two types of quantitative indexes to control a monopoly. First type estimates the value of monopoly power, second type —impact degree of this power. It makes us possible to control monopoly on different hierarchical levels: firm, sector of economy, economy as a whole. Besides, there are some more competitive advantages of proposed indexes: 1)monitor indexes in dynamics, i.e. we are able to estimate in real time both the fact of a monopoly power usage and impact degree of this power; 2) to separate innovative component from production cost of monopolist; 3) to demonstrate the monopoly power impact on period and amplitude of economic cycle; 4) to control monopoly in a permanent mode, actually “on-line”, but not in a discrete mode as it could be done in standard methods. Additionally, proposed indexes do not require confidential information about firm’s activity.

Keywords:monopoly, antitrust regulation, competition, market imperfections, monopoly power

We define the specific features in the control over natural monopoly and the main drawbacks in the contemporary methods of such a control. Also, we analyze some alternative methods of monopoly control that take place in world practice. This paper presents a possible way to improve the information component for quantitative control of natural monopoly using the method of marginal price level fixing (method of price coefficients changing). This method is a widespread one that is used for price regulation of natural monopoly in highly developed countries. However, the method to define the main elements in the correspond-ing formula — inflation number, economic efficiency factor (X-factor) and effect of external factors (Z-factor) — is still to be elaborated. This fact is one of the main objective reasons why this method is not presently used in practice in Ukraine. Of fundamental importance is the uncertainty of the efficiency factor (X-factor) revision criteria. It can contribute to the slowdown of investments, reducing the interest of the monopolist in largescale and long-term investments. This paper presents an attempt to eliminate most of the above mentioned drawbacks in the method of the marginal price fixing (method of price coefficients changing) using author\'s CMI-model of macroeconomic dynamics. We propose a method to define unambiguously the efficiency factor (X) for natural monopoly. Also, we have modified the formula to define the price (tariff) for a product of natural monopoly in order to stimulate the monopoly\'s innovative and investment activity while keeping the consumer’s interest, and to eliminate the slowdown effect of investments. Besides, using the CMI-model we are able to determine quantita-tive indexes of monopoly power and the rate of effect of this power on the econ-omy as a whole and on its various sectors. These indexes are proposed as addi-tional ones to the price (tariff) formula to verify the results of the formula’s action.

Keywords:natural monopoly, price (tariff) regulation, factor of efficiency, monopoly power, competition

The paper demonstrates the necessity and possibility to unify the controlling indicators for different types of monopoly (monopolistic competition, oligopoly, natural monopoly) in order to increase efficiency of the monopoly control. Especially this concerns the complex types of monopoly from the point of view of its control, for example, oligopoly. The complexity of this type of monopoly control is associated with the actual inevitability of the appearance of tacit pricing coordination among the oligopoly participants. And the problem is not so much in admitting that the very fact of such a coordination is difficult to prove as in defining the harm it causes to the market and the entire economy. This paper shows the possibility to use the quantitative indexes of monopoly control proposed based on author’s CMI-model of macroeconomic dynamics, to apply these indexes for various types of monopoly.
A distinctive feature of this model is the possibility to calculate the vector of “natural” prices for any sector (i.e., the prices that correspond to the state of perfect competition even if it is impossible to reach this state in the existing markets). And the comparison of the actual market price with the “natural” one allows us to control a monopoly using the price indexes alone. In turn, it allows us to perform a monopoly control at various hierarchical levels of the economic system (a firm, an economic sector and economy as a whole). Such a control enables us to calculate the degrees of the monopoly impact both on the entire economy, and on its various sectors. Quantitative values of these degrees can be used as evidence in antitrust litigations and for choice of corresponding instruments to “punish” the monopoly for such abuses.
The paper reveals the mechanism of use of the proposed formulas for determination of the monopolistic power and degree of its impact on economy and various economic sectors for the cases of oligopoly and natural monopoly. Also, this paper demonstrates the mechanism of the influence of antimonopoly policy on the configuration of business cycle and on economic growth rate (when other policies are neutral). This opens up the possibility to combine the antitrust policy with the anticyclical and fiscal ones, because, under recession, increased monopolistic power in an individual sector may help the whole economy get out of the crisis.

Keywords:monopoly, oligopoly, antitrust regulation, monopoly control indicators, business cycle

This article presents the principles and results of real time forecasting of recessions in the US economy using macroeconomic forecasting models, which has, as the model’s output, a single indicator of general economic activity that can be monitored monthly or at least quarterly: GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index; 2) Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator; 3) Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities; 4) Composite Leading Indicator Index; and 5) Yield Curves Inversion Model. Usually, these models are used in practice by government regulators and business to make their decisions in real time, as they are simple to apply and are updated regularly. However, these models have no sufficient theoretical grounding, therefore it is difficult to define the best model to apply in practice, especially in the case of missed or false signals about impending recession or in the case of various forecasting results obtained from different models. Besides, this paper presents a US economy forecast made using the author’s CMI-model of macroeconomic dynamics, which has all advantages of the above mentioned models, but also has theoretical grounding for its single index of general economic activity that can be updated monthly. According to the CMI-model we may expect a new US recession (in accordance with official NBER methodology of a business cycle dating) at the end of second quarter of 2024. At the same period, we can expect a persistent growth in unemployment. As to the financial sector of US economy, its dynamics for the next few months will depend on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. If Fed starts to decrease Federal Fund rate, one can expect new and significant absolute values (financial bubbles) for key financial indexes. If Fed is not able to reduce Federal Fund rate due to high inflation, financial indexes will possibly hold their high levels in average (or even increase as a result of expectations for the Federal Fund rate reduction or as a result of positive news from individual economic sectors or companies). The development of the financial bubble may continue until statistic data will be able to confirm the start of a new recession that would initiate a huge financial crisis. Obviously, the possible reduction of Federal Fund rate will increase the power of the expected financial crisis. In any case, such a financial crisis, initiated by a new recession, will probably occur in second half of 2024, since the statistics, which reflect the past state of the economy, will continue generating ambiguous signals as to the possibility of a new recession. And only closer to the end of 2024 unambiguous statistical data about the state of economy at the middle of the year will appear. However, the official dating of the recession in NBER terms will be probably done even later. In this case it will be the middle of 2025 or even later. Usually, the deeper the recession is, the easier and earlier it can be dated. To my mind, even if Fed reduces the Federal Fund rate, it may fail to help avoid new recession.
Moreover, a significant level of inflation is unlikely to allow a relatively rapid reduction of the discount rate or any other aggressive boost for the economy

Keywords:recession, financial crisis, forecasting efficiency, economic information, forecasting model. US economy forecasts for 2024