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№ 2018/3

International economy


BURLAI Tetiana V.1

1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine

Risks of the emergence of divergence trap in the process of Ukraine's eurointegration

Ekon. teor. 2018; 3:99-119https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2018.03.099


ABSTRACT ▼

The article characterizes the current dynamics of social and economic development of Ukraine in the process of its European integration based on the Association Agreement with the European Union, signed in 2014. The author highlights the key role of the convergence mechanism in restoring sustainable economic growth, increasing the citizens’ well-being, as well as strengthening the integration processes in the European Union and EU international competitiveness. Provided a comparative assessment of the development of Ukraine and selected EU countries by GDP per capita; as well as the sizes of household welfare and national welfare per capita. The author emphasizes the tendency of divergence of the social and economic systems between the European Union and Ukraine, which has been increasingly strengthened in recent years. That tendency is expressed in terms of population welfare and labor productivity. The institutional phenomenon of divergence trap arising from the synthesis of poverty traps and non-convergence is described.
The author characterizes the risks of Ukraine’s getting into a divergence trap related to the action of such key domestic factors as: Ukraine's adoption, in 2015, of the conditions for restructuring part of the national debt, which significantly limits this country’s economic growth; the unacceptably low capitalization of the national economy in the context of convergence; the galloping labor migration from Ukraine, which causes significant losses of the domestic potential of GDP growth; the insignificant share of innovative technological factor in Ukraine’s macroeconomic development. The author notes the necessity of constructing econometric models for quantitative assessment of socio-economic convergence (divergence) between Ukraine and the European Union. The results of such models could be the development of appropriate recommendations as to the government regulation aimed at determining and effective implementation of mechanisms for Ukraine to exit the divergence trap.

Keywords: convergence, developmental risks, divergence trap, European integration of Ukraine, EU


JEL: А 130, D 630, І 310, І 390

Article in Russian (pp. 99 - 119) DownloadDownloads :902
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 99 - 119) DownloadDownloads :463

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