№ 2016/1
MacroeconomicsBANDURA Olexandr Viktorovych 1
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
GENERAL ECONOMIC CYCLES MODEL – CUMULATIVE INEFFICIENCY MODEL
ABSTRACT ▼
Attempting to establish a fundamental relationship between the efficiency of the use of production resources and dy-namics of economic growth, a new model of economic cycle is proposed. It is shown that the hidden resource overuse used in GDP production is an initial driving force of economic cycles for general case. The resource overuse is a result of cumulative market imperfections caused by various market conditions and embodied in the gap between calculated natural and actual market price deflators. Total efficiency of the regulatory policy and its influence on growth rate can be evaluated by the size of this gap. This enables feedback between actions of the regulator and their impact on the econ-omy. It was empirically tested on the USA economy using a period of 45 years or six empirical business cycles in a row. The model allows us to identify and forecast recession with the lead period 6 to 18 months. Empirical testing of the cumulative market imperfections model reveals the absence of false signals when recession starting points forecasting and possibility to separate recession signal from temporary slowdown one
Keywords: business cycles, economic growth rate, recession, forecasting, macroeconomic dynamics, macroequlibrium, perfect and efficient competition, market efficiency rate.
JEL: E30, E31, E32, E37
| Article in Russian (pp. 86 - 100) | Download | Downloads :849 |
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 86 - 100) | Download | Downloads :490 |
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