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№ 1/2022
Natural experiments as the latest tools in labor economics
Ekon. teor. 2022; 1:99-117 | https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2022.01.099 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The works by three scientists: D. Card, J. Angrist and G. Imbens received the highest award of economic scientific heritage in memory of A. Nobel last year. The scientific community recognizes their empirical contribution to the labor economy and their original view of causation and justification of methodological approaches to their evaluation in real life.
It is well known that most of the problematic issues in the social sci-ences are related to causation. There is a need to assess the effects of uncontrolled migration on wages and employment in the regions where migrants arrive. And how to assess the impact of the duration of educa-tion on future earnings? The lack of a comparative framework, such as information on the consequences of changes in migration or refusal to continue training, makes it very difficult to assess the consequences and causation. But the winners of 2021 proved the possibility of answer-ing such questions by conducting natural experiments that are similar to clinical trials in medicine. The results of their research have allowed economists around the world to obtain and use the toolkit of natural ex-periment in the study of economic processes.
Without violating ethical norms, the winners were able to assess the effects of various factors and the socio-economic effectiveness of causal relationships. A special advantage of their scientific results is the change of the research paradigm and the updating of tools in labor eco-nomics. Renouncing the traditional view of experimentation, the Nobel laureates in economics argued that they could consider a significant number of economic agents in roughly the same situation and, observing changes in their behavior and consequences, conclude and evaluate causal relationships.
The author of the article, analyzing the scientific achievements of last year's winners, concludes that the latest toolkit for randomized experi-ments have allowed the winners to get original and very controversial answers to traditional tasks, thus carrying out a "revolution of trust" in economics.
Keywords:causal relationships, randomized experiments, revolution of trust
JEL: J.01; J.08; J2, J3
Article in Russian (pp. 99 - 117) | Download | Downloads :136 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 99 - 117) | Download | Downloads :127 |
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№ 3/2022
BURLAI Tetiana V.1, KOSTRYTSYA Vasil 2, BLYZNIUK V. , LEVIN R.
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
2Association of Employers' Organizations of Ukraine
The EU's newest social quality policy: a useful experience for Ukraine's post-war reconstruction
Ekon. teor. 2022; 3:89-119 | https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2022.03.089 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The relevance of adaptation to the conditions of the post-war socio-economic recovery of Ukraine of modern approaches to the social quality policy of the European Union, historically based on the principles of social peace, social equality and justice, social welfare and quality of life of the population, is substantiated. The expediency of such adaptation is shown in connection with the formation in the Ukrainian society, suffering from the full-scale military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022, a clear demand for a stable post-war life in security, prosperity and social justice. A new conceptual approach to the construction of national systems of social protection and social insurance is characterized, which provides for the formation of social supports necessary for the security of national economies in post-crisis recovery. The content and features of the main approaches of the latest EU policy aimed at improving the parameters of social quality in the development of member countries, striving to achieve the three priority social goals of the European Union for the period up to 2030, are disclosed. In the context of ensuring social quality, such modern institutional components of the current development of the EU as the European Pillar of Social Rights, the new Action Plan for the Social Economy, the Strategy for the Protection of the Rights of People with Disabilities for 2021–2030, the Skills Development Partnership for the Digital Ecosystem, the Directive on adequate minimum wage in the EU, etc. Typical modern approaches to improving the social component of the state anti-crisis policy are described. Taking into account modern European practices of activating social dynamics and proposals of international institutions for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, recommendations have been developed regarding specific measures of domestic state policy aimed at ensuring the social quality of life in the period after the end of the war.
Keywords:economic security, European integration, employment, Ukrainian post-war reconstruction, social quality, social development
JEL: F15, I31, I38, J81, J88, O52
Article in Russian (pp. 89 - 119) | Download | Downloads :208 |
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 89 - 119) | Download | Downloads :203 |
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№ 3/2023
HEYETS Valeriy M.1, BURLAI Tetiana V.2, BLYZNIUK V.
1State Organization “Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine”
2Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
SOCIAL RESILIENCE OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY THROUGH THE PRISM OF THE EXPERIENCE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AND UKRAINE
Ekon. teor. 2023; 3:5-43 | https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2023.03.005 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The authors deal with the concept of resilience (stress resistance) at the macro level, and reveal its meaning in the societal, economic and social dimensions. It is shown that in the context of the strengthening of global risks and hybrid threats, and the accelerated transformation of the world into a global hybrid "peace-war" system, the priority task of government policy is to ensure the resilience of the national economic system as the ability to maintain functionality and recover after the shock effect of various factors. Based on the logical-historical approach, the authors reveal the stages in the formation of the concept of multidimensional resilience as a strategic basis of modern governance of the European Union. This concept became the basis for the reconfiguration of the EU strategic foresight system in 2020, integrated into the process of forming a Pan-European policy aimed at ensuring an effective transition to a "green", digital and fairer Europe. Within the framework of the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS), the updated EU strategic foresight system provides for the use of "Resiliency Information Panels" as a new monitoring tool, developed with due regard of the specificity in the development of the participating states. The evaluations of the socio-economic resilience of the European Union for the year 2023, which were obtained with the help of the specified monitoring tool, were analyzed and presented by the European Commission. The authors reveal the role of the concept of multidimensional resilience in the formation and implementation of national recovery and stability plans of the EU states at the current stage. Characterized the legislative innovations of the European Union regarding the resilience of the economies and societies of the participating countries in the conditions of overcoming the shock consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war and climate change. The paper substantiates the need to ensure the social resilience of the economic development of Ukraine as a reliable pillar of its support during the war with the Russian Federation, as well as during the post-war reconstruction and reconstruction. The authors prove that the social resilience of Ukraine’s national economy under the conditions of martial law and post-war reconstruction can be presented in the form of a model that structurally contains three sectors, namely: 1) employment and labor potential; 2) solvent consumer demand; and 3) social protection and provision. Each of these sectors is complexly dependent on many factors that characterize the generation of human and social capital, the quality of people's lives, the development of the spheres of employment, social security and social protection of the population, the state of the ecosystem and the institutional environment, etc. Taking into account the EU’s modern approaches, a list of basic and additional indicators is developed for monitoring and analyzing the social resilience of Ukraine’s national economy. The authors provide various practical recommendations on state policy measures aimed at ensuring the social resilience of this country’s economy of Ukraine in the war and post-war period.
Keywords:social resilience, macroeconomic development, hybrid &amp;amp;quot;peace-war&amp;amp;quot; system, post-war reconstruction, European integration
JEL: F52, I19, J21, P36, Z18
Article in Ukrainian (pp. 5 - 43) | Download | Downloads :97 |
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